Why International Coffee Prices Are Not Coming Back Down | Producing Regions and the Climate Today

How many notices of price increases at cafes have you seen in the past 2 years? Behind them lies the story of international market prices.

A record high was reached

In February 2025, the international price of arabica coffee beans exceeded 400 cents per pound and reached a record high of 431 cents. Robusta also rose to 5,826 dollars per ton. Compared with January 2024, arabica was at roughly 2.2 times the level.

Why prices are not returning

One of the main factors cited is the frequent occurrence of abnormal weather in major producing regions. Coffee trees are sensitive to temperature and rainfall conditions, and harvests can only be adjusted on a yearly basis. If poor weather continues, it can take years for supply to recover.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) analyzes that this rise will reach the consumer stage through 2026, and that retail prices may remain high for several years. In other words, even if market prices fall, storefront prices will not immediately fall with them.

Even so, people are still drinking it

It is estimated that more than about 2.5 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide each day. Japan ranks 4th in the world by consumption volume. The fact that demand does not collapse significantly even when prices rise is also one factor supporting persistently high prices.

The weather in producing regions reaches the price of a single cup after a delay of several years. When you think about the distance and time on the other side of the cup, the number on the price tag may look a little different.

For trends in Japanese cafes, see this article summarized here.

Reference: International Coffee Organization (ICO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), All Japan Coffee Association

—The Value Village Editorial Team