Global Olive Oil Output to Reach 3.44 Million Tons | A Recovery After Two Poor Harvest Years

Olive oil is essential for pasta and salads. Many people may remember how sharply store prices have moved over the past few years. Behind this were 2 consecutive years of poor harvests caused by drought and high temperatures along the Mediterranean coast. Using supply and demand statistics published by the International Olive Council (IOC), we trace how the market has recovered since then.

In 2024/25, production rose 38%

According to provisional IOC figures, global olive oil production in 2024/25 was 3.572 million tons, up 38% from the previous year. Consumption is expected to be about 3.215 million tons, up 15%, and imports about 1.198 million tons, up 15%. With supply returning, it was a year in which both consumption and trade recovered at the same time.

2025/26 is expected to stay broadly flat

For the following 2025/26 season, the IOC estimates production at 3.44 million tons. Although this is 4% lower than the previous year, it remains high compared with the poor-harvest period. Consumption, meanwhile, is expected to rise slightly to 3.248 million tons, up 1.0%. Imports and exports are both expected to exceed 1.2 million tons.

IOC figures (world total)
・2024/25 production 3.572 million tons (+38%) / consumption 3.215 million tons (+15%)
・2025/26 (estimate) production 3.44 million tons (-4%) / consumption 3.248 million tons (+1.0%)

As an agricultural product affected by weather

Olive oil is not an industrial product, but an agricultural product pressed from fruit that grows on trees. A single drought can easily affect harvests in the following year and beyond, and because much of production is concentrated in countries along the Mediterranean coast, regional weather appears directly in global supply and demand. Even now that the numbers have recovered, changes in the climate of producing regions continue to draw attention.

For international food supply and demand, long-term outlook for global sugar and cacao and chocolate prices please also see these articles.

Reference: International Olive Council

—The Value Village Editorial Team