Cacao Prices Have Fallen Back by Half, Yet | Reading Chocolate Prices Through International Statistics

In 2025, chocolate price hikes continued. Cocoa beans, the raw ingredient, reached historic highs at the end of 2024, then fell sharply through 2025. Looking at statistics from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) alongside those from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reveals the “time lag” between raw materials and store shelves.

From $11,000 to $5,800

According to ICCO’s monthly market report, the nearby price of cocoa beans on the London market rose 66% in the first 3 months of the season, from $6,896 per ton on October 1, 2024 to $11,441 on December 31. Behind this was a supply shortage. ICCO calculated the global supply-demand balance for the 2023/24 season as a shortage of about 489,000 tons.

After that, the market turned downward. In the October 2025 report, the London market fell from $6,320 at the start of the month to $5,808 at month-end. That is roughly half the peak level.

Production Recovers, Grindings Decline

ICCO’s August 2026 quarterly statistics show global production for 2024/25 at 4.733 million tons, up 8.5% year on year. Meanwhile, “grindings,” the processing of beans into raw materials for chocolate and cocoa, were 4.649 million tons, down 3.3%. Supply and demand shifted to a surplus of 37,000 tons, and end-of-season stocks as a ratio to grindings stood at 28.2%. The picture is that high prices encouraged producers to reinvest, while processors reduced volume because of high raw material costs.

Key point: International cocoa bean prices have fallen to nearly half their end-2024 peak, but consumer prices for chocolate in Japan rose 35.7% year on year on average in 2025 (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). High raw material prices reach store shelves over time through inventories and contracts.

Store Prices Move With a Delay

In the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ Consumer Price Index (2020 base), chocolate rose 35.7% year on year on average in 2025, far exceeding the 8.9% increase for “confectionery” overall. Even in December 2025 alone, it was up 25.8% from the same month a year earlier. Raw materials are often procured under contracts lasting several months to a year, so it takes time for declines in international prices to be reflected in store prices.

ICCO has temporarily suspended publication of production and grinding data for 2025/26, so the outlook for supply and demand has not yet been finalized. For overall trends in Japan’s confectionery market, see A Land of Sweets Worth 3,878.5 Billion Yen, and for another beverage swayed by international markets, see Why International Coffee Prices Are Not Coming Back Down.

References: International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), Statistics Bureau of Japan

—The Value Village Editorial Team